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The Net As Microcosm: China Chooses Between Politics and Commerce
The latest forecasts for the Internet market over the next few years
are eye-opening, to say the least. The figures go as high as $7
billion of business to consumer e-commerce in 2003 from Goldman Sachs
and 120 million users in 2004 from consultancy BDA. The projected
number of users is fairly reasonable, in light of evidence that Net
use is finally spreading from the elite to a younger and less
educated population. The b-to-c number is nothing short of
astonishing, constituting a 16,000 percent increase in just four
years from 1999 revenues of $43 million.
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Goldman has predicted consolidation among domestic companies but also
called for more competition. That can only mean greater foreign
access, which may not be acceptable to the Party. A recent national
security report, publicized yesterday, bemoans China's lack of say in
the development of the Net and attributes it to lack of local
initiative. That problem would only be worsened by letting foreign
firms and technology roll in unchecked. The People's Daily today
stepped back in time 30 years to rail against "enemy forces at home
and abroad [using the Net] to infiltrate us." Can such a medium,
currently dominated by foreign interests and being used to subvert
the Party's control, really be allowed to prosper so mightily in the
next few years?
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China
E-Bytes
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| General Electric won a $215 million contract for 10 years of engine
maintenance of China Southern's 777s. |
| The northern Songhua river has set another new low for water levels
and is no longer passable for river traffic. Multiple northern
provinces have reported that millions of residents are now short of
water. |
| A key aspect of improving economic performance may be the housing
sector. Mortgage lending jumped over 40 percent in the first half of
the year to almost $30 billion. |
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| Keep
up with the fast changing business environment in
China, the world's biggest and fastest-growing emerging
economy. Sinomania! recommends Orbis
Publications, Experts in Emerging Markets, for
a full range of in-depth coverage on China including
daily/weekly/monthly reports and more. |
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